ArticlesIn 1999, the PC I used had required a 200W power supply.
In 2005, the PC I used had required a 380W power supply.
Making some simple assumptions about 240 VAC and exponential growth of everything related to computers, I was soon able to plot the graph and make a prediction.
By 2029, my PC power requirements (green dashed line) will hit the magic 20 Amp mark (bright blue line), and require an electrician to install with a separate power circuit and its own fuse, much like my oven.
Similarly, projecting forward a couple of other PC-related metrics, this will be only a couple of years after my entire 397.23″ display is finally rendered useless by the Windows System Tray covering the whole screen with icons of services running in the background looking for updates to installed software.
Mark my words.
Comment by Newman on July 30, 2006
Come on, two entries does not a statistical graph make. How do you get an exponential curve off two entries? The maximum you should be able to calculate is a simple linear progression, with the data you have available.
Assumimg six full years between the dates given, you’ve has a 180W increase over six years, an average of 30W per year. Allow for a full 25 years between your 2005 date and 2030, 25 x 30 = 750W increase, much less than the near 5MW you surmise.
Comment by Julian on August 6, 2006
Newman,
Thanks for your careful analysis.
I think you may have missed a minor, but significant, word included in the article above, which completely validates my choice of exponential curve over a linear one.
Comment by Cassie on August 8, 2006
And there was also
I thought that was a bit obvious.